Market Outlook

More than two-thirds of advisors (72%) say the S&P 500 Index will continue its upward climb in the next six months, according to the sixth wave of the Independent Advisor Outlook Study conducted in July 2009.

The semi-annual study has tracked advisor sentiment since January 2007, when 78% of Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) predicted the S&P 500 would rise in the following six months. Market confidence had fallen in subsequent surveys, to 67% in July 2007 and a low of 46% in January 2008. For the past year, only slightly more than half of advisors have forecast a rise in the S&P index.

Performance of the S&P 500 by Advisors' Predictions It Will Increase

All Respondents 

Key Market Sectors

Among the RIAs surveyed, the following market sectors were expected to be top performers in the next six months:

• Information Technology: 48% named IT as a top performer, up from 29% in January 2009.
• Energy: 35% named Energy as a top performer, holding steady over the past 18 months.
• Financials: 34% named Financials as a top performer, up sharply from 18% in the prior period.

Market Sector Performance in Next Six Months from July '09

All Respondents 

Only 12% of RIAs surveyed expected Consumer Discretionary to be a top-performing market segment in the next six months, but that number rose from the prior period (5%) and is the highest ranking that sector has received since the semi-annual study began in January 2007.